Mali vs Tunisia: Prediction, Lineups, Kickoff Time | AFCON 2025 Round of 16

Mali vs Tunisia — Match Preview

The knockout stages of AFCON 2025 heat up at the Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca on Sunday, 4 January 2026, as two heavyweights collide. Mali, the “Eagles,” arrive in the Round of 16 as the tournament’s draw specialists, having drawn all three of their group games against Comoros, Morocco, and Zambia. They are unbeaten but have lacked a cutting edge. Tunisia, the “Eagles of Carthage,” qualified with a mixed record (1W, 1D, 1L), showing flashes of brilliance in their 3–1 win over Uganda but defensive frailty in the 2–3 loss to Nigeria. With a history of tight, low-scoring contests between these two, this promises to be a tense tactical battle.

Mali vs Tunisia — Match Info

• Competition: Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Round of 16)
• Venue: Stade Mohamed V, Casablanca (Capacity: 45,891)
• Date: Sunday, 4 January 2026
• Kickoff: 20:00 GMT | 21:00 WAT | 21:00 CET
• Referee: TBC (CAF Appointment)

Mali vs Tunisia — Match Stakes

Mali:

• Win → Advances to the Quarter-Finals; breaks the streak of draws and proves they can win big games.
• Loss → Eliminated; a disappointing campaign of “what ifs” (unbeaten in group but out in R16).

Tunisia:

• Win → Advances to the Quarter-Finals; builds momentum after a shaky group stage.
• Loss → Eliminated; questions will be asked about the inconsistency shown against top teams like Nigeria.

Mali vs Tunisia — Team News

Mali:

• Haidara A. — Out (Suspended – Red Card vs Comoros) – Huge loss in midfield.
• Niakate S. — Questionable (Injury)
• Traore H. — Questionable (Injury)
• Koita S. — Available (Likely to replace Haidara or shuffle the midfield).
• Bissouma Y. — Available (Key man; must control the tempo without Haidara).

Tunisia:

• Achouri E. — Questionable (Injury – Key winger).
• Msakni Y. — Available (Captain & Talisman).
• Skhiri E. — Available (Midfield anchor).
• Rafia H. — Available (Creative spark).

Mali vs Tunisia — Team Form (Last 5 Matches)

Mali

• 30/12 — 0–0 vs Comoros (AFCON)
• 27/12 — 1–1 vs Morocco (AFCON)
• 22/12 — 1–1 vs Zambia (AFCON)
• 18/11 — 0–0 vs Jordan (Friendly)
• 13/10 — 4–1 vs Madagascar (WC Qualifier)

Tunisia

• 30/12 — 1–1 vs Tanzania (AFCON)
• 28/12 — 2–3 vs Nigeria (AFCON)
• 24/12 — 3–1 vs Uganda (AFCON)
• 18/12 — 2–1 vs Botswana (Friendly)
• 07/12 — 3–0 vs Qatar (Arab Cup)

Mali vs Tunisia — Head-to-Head (Last 5 Meetings)

• Tight Affairs: 4 of the last 5 meetings have seen Under 1.5 Goals.
• 21/01/2024 — Tunisia 1–1 Mali (AFCON)
• 30/03/2022 — Tunisia 0–0 Mali (WC Qualifier)
• 25/03/2022 — Mali 0–1 Tunisia (WC Qualifier)
• 12/01/2022 — Tunisia 0–1 Mali (AFCON)
• 16/06/2021 — Tunisia 1–0 Mali (Friendly)

Mali vs Tunisia — Playing XI (Predicted Lineups)

Mali (4-3-3)

Diarra; Sacko, Kouyate, Fofana, Dante; Bissouma, Camara, Dieng; Dorgeles, Sinayoko, Doumbia

Tunisia (4-3-3)

Ben Said; Kechrida, Meriah, Talbi, Abdi; Skhiri, Laidouni, Ben Romdhane; Msakni, Jouini, Rafia (or Achouri if fit)

Mali vs Tunisia — Impact Bench

Mali: Kone (Striker option), Coulibaly (Midfield depth)

Tunisia: Sliti (Creative sub), Jaziri (Goal poacher)

Mali vs Tunisia — Tactical Analysis

Mali

The Eagles are solid but sterile. Drawing three group games shows they are hard to beat but struggle to kill teams off. The loss of Amadou Haidara (Lens) is massive; he provides the energy and box-to-box drive. Yves Bissouma will have to do double the work. Expect them to prioritize a clean sheet and look for Sinayoko on the break.

Tunisia

Tunisia are more tactically flexible but prone to lapses (conceding 3 vs Nigeria). They will look to exploit Mali’s missing midfielder by controlling the center of the park through Ellyes Skhiri. Youssef Msakni’s experience in these knockout games is vital; he knows how to win ugly. If Elias Achouri is out, their width suffers significantly.

Mali vs Tunisia — Key Battles

• Bissouma vs Skhiri — The battle of the Bundesliga/Premier League midfield generals.
• Msakni vs Sacko — Tunisia’s veteran winger vs Mali’s athletic fullback.
• Sinayoko vs Talbi — Mali’s forward needs to hold up the ball against Tunisia’s rock.
• The Clock vs Nerves — Both teams have a history of cautious play; an early goal changes everything.

Mali vs Tunisia — Spotlight Players

Mali — Yves Bissouma

With Haidara suspended, the Spurs midfielder is the undisputed leader. He needs to dictate play and potentially provide a moment of magic from distance to break down a stubborn Tunisian defense.

Tunisia — Youssef Msakni

The captain has been here many times before. In tight games where chances are premium, his ability to draw fouls or finish a half-chance is Tunisia’s best weapon.

Mali vs Tunisia — Prediction

Mali 0–1 Tunisia

This has “low-scoring tactical battle” written all over it. Mali’s inability to win games in the group stage (3 draws) combined with the suspension of key midfielder Haidara tips the balance slightly. Tunisia have the experience and the “know-how” to grind out a 1-0 win in knockout football, just as they did in the World Cup qualifiers in 2022.

Mali vs Tunisia — Betting Insights

• Under 1.5 Goals — High Probability (History suggests 0-0 or 1-0).
• Tunisia to Qualify — Value Bet.
• Draw at Half Time — Very Likely.

Mali vs Tunisia — Where to Watch

• International: beIN Sports, Canal+ Afrique
• UK: Sky Sports Football / BBC iPlayer
• Streaming: CAF TV (YouTube – Selected Regions)

Mali vs Tunisia — FAQs

Q: When is the Mali vs Tunisia match?

A: The match takes place on Sunday, 4 January 2026, at 20:00 GMT.

Q: Is Amadou Haidara playing?

A: No. He is suspended after receiving a red card in the group stage.

Q: Who is the favorite?

A: It is very even, but Tunisia are slight favorites due to Mali’s suspension issues.

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