Mali vs Senegal: Prediction, Lineups, Kickoff Time | AFCON 2025 Quarter-Final

Mali vs Senegal — Match Preview

The Stade Ibn Batouta in Tangier hosts a colossal West African derby on Thursday, 8 January 2026, as Mali clash with Senegal for a place in the AFCON semi-finals. Senegal, the “Lions of Teranga,” have been ruthless so far, brushing aside Sudan 3–1 in the Round of 16 and racking up goals with ease (scoring 3+ in three of their last five games). Led by Sadio Mané and Nicolas Jackson, they arrive well-rested having played on January 3rd.

Mali, the “Eagles,” had a far tougher route. They needed extra time to overcome Tunisia 2–1 on January 4th, meaning they enter this tie with heavier legs and one less day of recovery. Despite being unbeaten in the tournament, Mali have drawn three of their five games, often struggling to kill matches off. They will need a heroic defensive effort to stop a rampant Senegalese attack that has historically dominated this fixture.

Mali vs Senegal — Match Info

• Competition: Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Quarter-Final)
• Venue: Stade Ibn Batouta, Tanger (Capacity: 75,500)
• Date: Thursday, 8 January 2026
• Kickoff: 20:00 GMT | 21:00 WAT | 21:00 CET
• Referee: TBC (CAF Appointment)

Mali vs Senegal — Match Stakes

Mali:

• Win → Reaches the Semi-Finals; breaks the “quarter-final curse” and secures bragging rights over their neighbors.
• Loss → Elimination; fatigue from the Round of 16 likely cited as a key factor.

Senegal:

• Win → Moves to the Semi-Finals; stays on course to reclaim the African crown.
• Loss → A massive upset given their form and rest advantage; failure for a “Golden Generation” squad.

Mali vs Senegal — Team News

Mali:

• Coulibaly W. — Out (Suspended – Red Card vs Tunisia)
• Diarra G. — Out (Ankle Injury)
• Coulibaly L. — Questionable (Injury)
• Niakate S. — Questionable (Injury)
• Fatigue Concern: Having played 120 minutes against Tunisia just four days ago, rotation or tired legs could be an issue in the second half.
• Midfield Core: Yves Bissouma and Amadou Haidara (or Aliou Dieng) must control the tempo to protect the defense.

Senegal:

• Camara I. — Out (Muscle Injury)
• Diao A. — Out (Thigh Injury)
• Niang O. — Out (Inactive)
• Full Strength Attack: Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson, and Ismaïla Sarr are all fit and expected to start.
• Defensive Solidity: Edouard Mendy commands a backline that has conceded just 2 goals in the tournament.

Mali vs Senegal — Team Form (Last 5 Matches)

Mali

• 04/01 — 2–1 vs Tunisia (AFCON R16 – AET)
• 30/12 — 0–0 vs Comoros (AFCON)
• 27/12 — 1–1 vs Morocco (AFCON)
• 22/12 — 1–1 vs Zambia (AFCON)
• 18/11 — 0–0 vs Jordan (Friendly)

Senegal

• 03/01 — 3–1 vs Sudan (AFCON R16)
• 31/12 — 3–0 vs Benin (AFCON)
• 27/12 — 1–1 vs DR Congo (AFCON)
• 23/12 — 3–0 vs Botswana (AFCON)
• 18/11 — 8–0 vs Kenya (Friendly)

Mali vs Senegal — Head-to-Head (Last 5 Meetings)

• 10/10/2019 — Senegal 2–0 Mali (WAFU Cup)
• 26/03/2019 — Senegal 2–1 Mali (Friendly)
• 05/03/2014 — Senegal 1–1 Mali (Friendly)
• 17/11/2007 — Mali 2–3 Senegal (Friendly)
• 08/10/2005 — Senegal 3–0 Mali (WC Qualifier)

Mali vs Senegal — Playing XI (Predicted Lineups)

Mali (4-3-3)

Diarra; Traore, Diaby, Camara, Dante; Bissouma, Dieng, Sangare; Nene, Sinayoko, Doumbia

Senegal (4-3-3)

Mendy; Diatta, Seck, Niakhate, Jakobs; H. Diarra, I. Gueye, P. Gueye; Sarr, Jackson, Mane

Mali vs Senegal — Impact Bench

Mali: Koita (Attacking spark), Samassekou (Defensive shield)

Senegal: Diallo (Goals off bench), Ndiaye (Creativity)

Mali vs Senegal — Tactical Analysis

Mali

Eric Chelle’s side relies on a robust midfield block led by Yves Bissouma. Against Tunisia, they showed grit to win in extra time, but they lack a clinical edge (drawing 3 group games). Their strategy will likely be to stifle Senegal’s rhythm, stay compact, and look for Sinayoko or Nene Dorgeles on the counter. They cannot afford to get into a shootout with Senegal.

Senegal

Aliou Cissé’s men are purring. They play with width and pace, utilizing Ismaïla Sarr and Sadio Mané to stretch defenses before feeding Nicolas Jackson. With an extra day of rest, expect Senegal to play at a high tempo from the first whistle, trying to exhaust the tired Malian legs. Their transition from defense to attack is currently the best in the tournament.

Mali vs Senegal — Key Battles

• Bissouma vs Pape Gueye — Premier League vs La Liga midfield battle; whoever controls this dictates the game.
• Jackson vs Camara — Chelsea striker’s movement vs Mali’s center-back.
• Mane vs Traore — Mali’s right-back has the unenviable task of stopping Sadio Mané.
• Diarra vs Mendy — Goalkeeper performance will be crucial, especially if it goes to penalties.

Mali vs Senegal — Spotlight Players

Mali — Yves Bissouma

The Tottenham midfielder is the heartbeat of this team. If Mali are to cause an upset, Bissouma needs a 10/10 performance to break up Senegal’s attacks and drive his team forward.

Senegal — Nicolas Jackson

The striker is in lethal form. His link-up play with Mané has been devastating, and he will look to exploit any fatigue in the Malian backline.

Mali vs Senegal — Prediction

Mali 0–2 Senegal

Fatigue will be the deciding factor here. Mali played 120 minutes just four days ago, while Senegal cruised past Sudan in 90 minutes a day earlier. Combined with Senegal’s superior H2H record and explosive attack, the Lions of Teranga should have too much power for the brave Eagles.

Mali vs Senegal — Betting Insights

• Senegal to Win — High Probability.
• Sadio Mane to Score or Assist — Likely.
• Under 2.5 Goals — Possible (Mali defense is usually tight until fatigue sets in).

Mali vs Senegal — Where to Watch

• Senegal: RTS
• Mali: ORTM
• International: beIN Sports, Canal+ Afrique, Sky Sports

Mali vs Senegal — FAQs

Q: When is the Mali vs Senegal match?

A: The match kicks off on Thursday, 8 January 2026, at 20:00 GMT.

Q: Who is favored?

A: Senegal are favorites due to their form (scoring 3 goals/game regularly) and extra rest.

Q: Is Mali missing players?

A: Yes, W. Coulibaly is suspended (Red Card) and G. Diarra is injured.

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