Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix: Prediction, Lineups, Kickoff Time | A-League 2025/26

On: December 26, 2025 2:39 PM

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Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Match Preview

A massive “six-pointer” awaits at AAMI Park on Monday, 29 December 2025, as Melbourne Victory host Wellington Phoenix. Both sides are locked on 11 points, sitting 9th and 8th respectively, and are desperate to break into the Finals Series spots. Victory have turned a corner recently, securing back-to-back wins including a gritty Derby triumph over Melbourne City. Wellington Phoenix also arrive with renewed confidence after a convincing 3–1 win over the Central Coast Mariners, snapping a poor run of form. With the league table incredibly tight, a win for either side could catapult them as high as 4th place.

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Match Info

Competition: Isuzu UTE A-League (Matchday 10)
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne (Capacity: 30,050)
Date: Monday, 29 December 2025
Kickoff: 19:00 AEDT | 21:00 NZDT | 08:00 GMT
Referee: Shaun Evans (AUS)

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Match Stakes

Melbourne Victory (9th — 11 pts):

Win → Moves to 14 pts; could jump into the top 6 and extends winning streak to 3 games.
Draw → Keeps momentum ticking but misses a chance to leapfrog a direct rival at home.
Loss → Stalls the resurgence; drops back into the bottom cluster of the table.

Wellington Phoenix (8th — 11 pts):

Win → Moves to 14 pts; establishes them as a serious finals contender away from home.
Draw → A solid result in Melbourne; maintains the gap above Victory on goal difference.
Loss → Dragged back into the bottom half mix; defensive concerns likely resurface.

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Team News

Melbourne Victory:

Denis Genreau — Available (Returns from suspension – Huge Boost)
Brendan Hamill — Out (Injury)
Reno Piscopo — Out (Injury)
Franco Lino — Out (Injury)
Nikos Vergos — Available (Scored in last 2 games vs Wellington)

Wellington Phoenix:

Tim Payne — Out (Broken Collarbone – Key Defender Missing)
Kosta Barbarouses — Available (Former Victory star returns to AAMI Park)
Alex Rufer — Available (Captain)
Lukas Kelly-Heald — Likely to deputize in defense given Payne’s absence.

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Team Form (Last 5 Matches)

Melbourne Victory

20/12 — 1–0 vs Melbourne City (A-League)
13/12 — 2–1 vs Adelaide United (A-League)
05/12 — 0–0 vs Macarthur FC (A-League)
28/11 — 0–1 vs Brisbane Roar (A-League)
22/11 — 0–3 vs Sydney FC (A-League)

Wellington Phoenix

21/12 — 3–1 vs Central Coast Mariners (A-League)
14/12 — 1–3 vs Newcastle Jets (A-League)
06/12 — 1–3 vs Auckland FC (A-League)
29/11 — 2–1 vs Adelaide United (A-League)
22/11 — 0–1 vs Macarthur FC (A-League)

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Head-to-Head (Last 5 Meetings)

12/04/2025 — Wellington 2–3 Melbourne Victory
14/02/2025 — Melbourne Victory 1–0 Wellington
24/11/2024 — Wellington 1–0 Melbourne Victory
18/05/2024 — Wellington 1–2 Melbourne Victory (Finals)
12/05/2024 — Melbourne Victory 0–0 Wellington

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Playing XI (Predicted Lineups)

Melbourne Victory (4-2-3-1)

Geria; Geria, Roderick, Miranda, Traore; Teague, Genreau; Velupillay, Machach, Arzani; Vergos

Wellington Phoenix (4-4-2)

Paulsen; Sheridan, Wootton, Surman, Kelly-Heald; Rufer, Pennington, Sandoval, Al-Taay; Barbarouses, Ishige

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Impact Bench

Melbourne Victory: Fornaroli (Game changer), Valadon (Midfield energy)

Wellington Phoenix: Kraev (Creative spark), Ball (Defensive cover)

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Tactical Analysis

Melbourne Victory

Patrick Kisnorbo’s side has tightened up defensively, conceding just one goal in their last three games. The return of Denis Genreau adds tenacity and drive to the midfield. At home, expect Victory to press high and utilize the pace of Nishan Velupillay and Daniel Arzani on the wings to expose Wellington’s full-backs, especially with Tim Payne missing.

Wellington Phoenix

Giancarlo Italiano’s “Chiefy-ball” relies on structured possession and quick transitions. However, without Tim Payne, their defensive width is compromised. Wellington will look to crowd the midfield with Alex Rufer and Scott Wootton stepping up, trying to frustrate Victory before releasing Kosta Barbarouses in behind. Their 3-1 win last week showed they can score freely when they move the ball quickly.

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Key Battles

Vergos vs Surman — Physical striker vs young defender; aerial duels will be key.
Genreau vs Rufer — A midfield battle of high intensity and leadership.
Velupillay vs Kelly-Heald — Victory’s speedster vs Phoenix’s deputy left-back.
Barbarouses vs Roderick — The veteran forward knows exactly how to exploit space at AAMI Park.

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Spotlight Players

Melbourne Victory — Daniel Arzani

The mercurial winger is in fine form. His ability to beat players 1v1 creates chaos, and against a restructured Phoenix defense, he could be the match-winner.

Wellington Phoenix — Hideki Ishige

The Japanese import was instrumental in the win over the Mariners. His technical ability to link play between midfield and attack is vital for Wellington to break down Victory’s improved defense.

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix — Prediction

Melbourne Victory 2–1 Wellington Phoenix

Both teams are on the up, but Victory’s home advantage and recent defensive solidity give them the edge. Wellington’s loss of Tim Payne is a significant blow to their defensive structure. Expect a tight, entertaining contest with Victory just edging it in the second half.